{ "contract_version": "evidence_surface.v1", "observation_contract": { "contract_version": "evidence_surface.v1", "observation_fields": [ "observation_id", "kind", "claim", "consequence", "authority", "value", "provenance", "vintage", "checksum", "supports", "contradicts", "missing", "used", "signal_family", "direction", "weight", "diagnostics", "unit", "source_type" ], "stable_contract_fields": [ "claim", "consequence", "authority", "value", "provenance", "vintage", "checksum", "supports", "contradicts", "missing", "used", "signal_family", "direction", "weight", "diagnostics" ], "compatibility_fields": [ "unit", "source_type" ], "trend_state_fields": [ "metric", "state", "level", "slope", "acceleration", "volatility", "peer_percentile", "structural_break", "capacity_distance", "revision_risk", "suppression_risk", "freshness_decay", "contradiction_index" ], "impact_hypotheses": [ "genuine_expansion", "displacement", "substitution", "leakage_dominant", "non_materialization" ], "viability_hypotheses": [ "financeable_as_scoped", "undercapitalized_or_scope_mismatch", "permitting_delay", "operating_shortfall", "fiscal_mismatch", "community_capacity_binding" ], "observation_kinds": { "base_model_input": { "purpose": "Solved model input or provenance fact that sets the evidence floor.", "required_fields": [ "claim", "consequence", "authority", "value", "provenance", "vintage", "checksum", "supports", "contradicts", "missing", "used", "signal_family", "direction", "weight", "diagnostics" ] }, "decision_uncertainty_parameter": { "purpose": "Decision-layer uncertainty parameter and its evidence standing.", "required_fields": [ "claim", "consequence", "authority", "value", "provenance", "vintage", "checksum", "supports", "contradicts", "missing", "used", "signal_family", "direction", "weight", "diagnostics" ] }, "hypothesis_evidence_atom": { "purpose": "Governed evidence atom that moves competing hypotheses.", "required_fields": [ "claim", "consequence", "authority", "value", "provenance", "vintage", "checksum", "supports", "contradicts", "missing", "used", "signal_family", "direction", "weight", "diagnostics" ] }, "data_quality_penalty": { "purpose": "Weakness in public/API or validation evidence that affects confidence.", "required_fields": [ "claim", "consequence", "authority", "value", "provenance", "vintage", "checksum", "supports", "contradicts", "missing", "used", "signal_family", "direction", "weight", "diagnostics" ] }, "trend_early_warning_indicator": { "purpose": "Time-series or practice-state warning before the client claim travels.", "required_fields": [ "claim", "consequence", "authority", "value", "provenance", "vintage", "checksum", "supports", "contradicts", "missing", "used", "signal_family", "direction", "weight", "diagnostics" ] }, "disclosed_but_not_used_fact": { "purpose": "Relevant fact disclosed but intentionally not used in the model.", "required_fields": [ "claim", "consequence", "authority", "value", "provenance", "vintage", "checksum", "supports", "contradicts", "missing", "used", "signal_family", "direction", "weight", "diagnostics" ] }, "missing_expected_evidence": { "purpose": "Expected evidence absent under a live hypothesis or claim gate.", "required_fields": [ "claim", "consequence", "authority", "value", "provenance", "vintage", "checksum", "supports", "contradicts", "missing", "used", "signal_family", "direction", "weight", "diagnostics" ] } } }, "observation_count": 13, "missing_count": 6, "by_kind": { "data_quality_penalty": 1, "base_model_input": 2, "hypothesis_evidence_atom": 4, "missing_expected_evidence": 6 }, "observations": [ { "observation_id": "source:status", "kind": "data_quality_penalty", "claim": "Source extraction status: audit-safe.", "consequence": "Sets the floor for what the audit may claim from this document; a weak source cannot support a strong release finding.", "authority": "Project Red Team source intake", "value": "audit_safe", "provenance": "examples/audit_pack/sample_study_excerpt.txt", "vintage": "", "checksum": "f80071538816dcb78f3e8f718c487ec181425dedb7699bfaac6e8dfdf706f327", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": false, "used": true, "signal_family": "source_confidence_gate", "direction": "neutral", "weight": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "source_file": "examples/audit_pack/sample_study_excerpt.txt", "source_kind": "text", "source_sha256": "f80071538816dcb78f3e8f718c487ec181425dedb7699bfaac6e8dfdf706f327", "extraction_method": "read_text_utf8_replace", "source_status": "audit_safe", "confidence": 1.0, "pages": 0, "tables": 0, "text_lines": 15, "table_lines": 0, "notes": [], "summary": "audit-safe: text; plain-text extraction; 15 text lines; 0 tables; confidence 100% on the source-extraction scale" }, "unit": "source_status", "source_type": "text" }, { "observation_id": "base:model_name", "kind": "base_model_input", "claim": "Model named by the study: IMPLAN.", "consequence": "Sets the audit context that gates use before any headline claim can travel.", "authority": "IMPLAN Audit Mode study-profile extractor", "value": "IMPLAN", "provenance": "examples/audit_pack/sample_study_excerpt.txt", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": false, "used": true, "signal_family": "model_name", "direction": "neutral", "weight": 0.45, "diagnostics": { "study_type": "mixed", "sector_archetype": "tourism" }, "unit": "model name", "source_type": "extracted_report_text" }, { "observation_id": "base:geography", "kind": "base_model_input", "claim": "Study geography named by the study: Hawthorne County, Oregon.", "consequence": "Sets the audit context that gates use before any headline claim can travel.", "authority": "IMPLAN Audit Mode study-profile extractor", "value": "Hawthorne County, Oregon", "provenance": "examples/audit_pack/sample_study_excerpt.txt", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": false, "used": true, "signal_family": "geography", "direction": "neutral", "weight": 0.45, "diagnostics": { "study_type": "mixed", "sector_archetype": "tourism" }, "unit": "geography", "source_type": "extracted_report_text" }, { "observation_id": "claim:001", "kind": "hypothesis_evidence_atom", "claim": "Jobs claim: 1,240 jobs.", "consequence": "Carried into the audit claim inventory; quote only with the attached snippet, source clue, confidence, and gate results.", "authority": "Extracted from report sentence", "value": "1,240", "provenance": "Executive summary: the arena will create 1,240 jobs and generate $4.6 million in annual state and local tax revenue.", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": false, "used": true, "signal_family": "jobs", "direction": "neutral", "weight": 0.62, "diagnostics": { "raw_metric_family": "jobs", "confidence": "medium", "source_clue": "same sentence" }, "unit": "jobs", "source_type": "same sentence" }, { "observation_id": "claim:002", "kind": "hypothesis_evidence_atom", "claim": "Tax and fiscal revenue claim: $4.6 million.", "consequence": "Carried into the audit claim inventory; quote only with the attached snippet, source clue, confidence, and gate results.", "authority": "Extracted from report sentence", "value": "$4.6 million", "provenance": "Executive summary: the arena will create 1,240 jobs and generate $4.6 million in annual state and local tax revenue.", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": false, "used": true, "signal_family": "tax_fiscal_revenue", "direction": "neutral", "weight": 0.62, "diagnostics": { "raw_metric_family": "tax_fiscal_revenue", "confidence": "medium", "source_clue": "same sentence" }, "unit": "dollars", "source_type": "same sentence" }, { "observation_id": "claim:003", "kind": "hypothesis_evidence_atom", "claim": "Visitor spending claim: $18.2 million.", "consequence": "Carried into the audit claim inventory; quote only with the attached snippet, source clue, confidence, and gate results.", "authority": "Extracted from report sentence", "value": "$18.2 million", "provenance": "The arena attracts 310,000 visitors whose $18.2 million of spending is counted in the model.", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": false, "used": true, "signal_family": "visitor_spending", "direction": "neutral", "weight": 0.62, "diagnostics": { "raw_metric_family": "visitor_spending", "confidence": "medium", "source_clue": "same sentence" }, "unit": "dollars", "source_type": "same sentence" }, { "observation_id": "claim:004", "kind": "hypothesis_evidence_atom", "claim": "Return on investment or benefit-cost ratio claim: 7.0:1 ratio.", "consequence": "Carried into the audit claim inventory; quote only with the attached snippet, source clue, confidence, and gate results.", "authority": "Extracted from report sentence", "value": "7.0:1", "provenance": "A $4.0 million city grant returns $28.0 million, a 7.0:1 ROI.", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": false, "used": true, "signal_family": "roi_bcr", "direction": "neutral", "weight": 0.62, "diagnostics": { "raw_metric_family": "roi_bcr", "confidence": "medium", "source_clue": "same sentence" }, "unit": "ratio", "source_type": "same sentence" }, { "observation_id": "missing_public_cost_side", "kind": "missing_expected_evidence", "claim": "Missing expected evidence: Public service costs, abatements, incentives, or other cost-side fiscal evidence.", "consequence": "Gross tax revenue may be mistaken for net fiscal benefit.", "authority": "IMPLAN Audit Mode fiscal_truth_gate", "value": "fail", "provenance": "", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": true, "used": true, "signal_family": "fiscal_truth_gate", "direction": "adverse", "weight": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "reason": "Tax or fiscal revenue appears without a detected public cost-side ledger.", "related_gate": "fiscal_truth_gate", "expected": "Public service costs, abatements, incentives, or other cost-side fiscal evidence" }, "unit": "severity", "source_type": "missing_report_evidence" }, { "observation_id": "missing_survey_response_rate", "kind": "missing_expected_evidence", "claim": "Missing expected evidence: Survey response rate, sample frame, and usable response count.", "consequence": "Survey-derived spending or input assumptions cannot be weighted for coverage risk.", "authority": "IMPLAN Audit Mode survey_adequacy_gate", "value": "fail", "provenance": "", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": true, "used": true, "signal_family": "survey_adequacy_gate", "direction": "adverse", "weight": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "reason": "Survey language appears without response-rate or sample-size disclosure.", "related_gate": "survey_adequacy_gate", "expected": "Survey response rate, sample frame, and usable response count" }, "unit": "severity", "source_type": "missing_report_evidence" }, { "observation_id": "missing_model_year", "kind": "missing_expected_evidence", "claim": "Missing expected evidence: Model year or data year.", "consequence": "Model structure may not match the spending period.", "authority": "IMPLAN Audit Mode model_vintage_gate", "value": "fail", "provenance": "", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": true, "used": true, "signal_family": "model_vintage_gate", "direction": "adverse", "weight": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "reason": "IMPLAN is named, but no model/data year was detected.", "related_gate": "model_vintage_gate", "expected": "Model year or data year" }, "unit": "severity", "source_type": "missing_report_evidence" }, { "observation_id": "missing_dollar_year", "kind": "missing_expected_evidence", "claim": "Missing expected evidence: Dollar year or currency year.", "consequence": "Nominal and real dollar claims may be mixed.", "authority": "IMPLAN Audit Mode model_vintage_gate", "value": "fail", "provenance": "", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": true, "used": true, "signal_family": "model_vintage_gate", "direction": "adverse", "weight": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "reason": "IMPLAN is named, but no dollar/currency year was detected.", "related_gate": "model_vintage_gate", "expected": "Dollar year or currency year" }, "unit": "severity", "source_type": "missing_report_evidence" }, { "observation_id": "missing_tax_retention_or_netting", "kind": "missing_expected_evidence", "claim": "Missing expected evidence: Gross-vs-net tax treatment and retention/abatement assumptions.", "consequence": "A gross tax collection can be mistaken for fiscal benefit to the decision maker.", "authority": "IMPLAN Audit Mode tax_gross_vs_net_gate", "value": "fail", "provenance": "", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": true, "used": true, "signal_family": "tax_gross_vs_net_gate", "direction": "adverse", "weight": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "reason": "Tax revenue appears without gross/net or tax-retention language.", "related_gate": "tax_gross_vs_net_gate", "expected": "Gross-vs-net tax treatment and retention/abatement assumptions" }, "unit": "severity", "source_type": "missing_report_evidence" }, { "observation_id": "missing_reconcilable_tables", "kind": "missing_expected_evidence", "claim": "Missing expected evidence: Tables or structured figures that can reconcile prose claims.", "consequence": "Prose figures cannot be checked against tabulated support.", "authority": "IMPLAN Audit Mode source_confidence_gate", "value": "warn", "provenance": "", "vintage": "", "checksum": "", "supports": {}, "contradicts": {}, "missing": true, "used": true, "signal_family": "source_confidence_gate", "direction": "adverse", "weight": 0.55, "diagnostics": { "reason": "No tables were detected by the existing document auditor.", "related_gate": "source_confidence_gate", "expected": "Tables or structured figures that can reconcile prose claims" }, "unit": "severity", "source_type": "missing_report_evidence" } ] }