Prepared for Illustrative County Board of Commissioners · Illustrative Region · 2024 dollars · the project, its suppliers, and the wages workers spend locally
1Economic impactWhat does the project do to the regional economy?
Over the horizon. 2026–2037, in 2024 dollars: $71.0M of modeled output undiscounted and $57.1M in present value at a 4.0% discount rate. The undiscounted figure is the one usually quoted, and it adds 12 years together; the recurring level is in the tiles above.
How big is that. The project accounts for 0.28% of all jobs in Illustrative Region. For scale, all jobs in Illustrative Region: 22,628 jobs.
Who benefits. The modeled job mix for 64 jobs averages 10% below the regional median wage ($41,199 job-weighted average wage against a $46,000 median).
2Net regional captureHow much of that is new, and how much only moved?
Annual Operations: already net of displacement. 28% of its demand would have been spent in the region anyway, so $2.5M of gross annual output is removed and $6.4M is the modeled figure that remains. Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.
Gross, not net
No displacement adjustment was applied to Construction. Those figures are gross: spending the region would have seen anyway is counted here as new. That share is unknown rather than zero. Displacement is the first correction we look for — a judgment from the twenty studies we read by hand, not a rate for the field.
No regional labor-market conditions were supplied, so every job above is counted as net new hiring. In a tight labor market some of those hires are people already working in the region moving between employers: the post gets filled and regional employment is unchanged.
3Fiscal ledgerWhat does the public treasury take in, and what does it pay out?
Average effective rates applied to modeled bases; the estimate carries the uncertainty of the bases. A further $798,859 a year is federal, and excluded. No tribal rate appears in the Illustrative County structure, so there is no tribal line — an absent rate, not zero revenue. Money in 2024 dollars.
| Level of government | Each year at full operation | One-time, during Construction |
|---|
| Local | $253,479 | $430,874 |
| State | $460,878 | $780,299 |
| State, local and tribal | $714,357 | $1,211,173 |
One side of the ledger only
Serving the households a project brings costs money — schools, roads, public safety. No service-cost structure was supplied here, so the cost side of the table above is missing. Whether the revenue covers it is the first question a commissioner asks. Nothing above may be read as a net fiscal gain.
4Credibility and recommendationHow far can this be relied on, and what do we advise?
Review: Provisional only — must be stamped throughout. Evidence: illustrative — not a finding.
Withheld
No recommendation is stated: the credibility gate ruled this study may not carry one. The evidence base is dominated by interested or placeholder sources. The recommendation is withheld until it is replaced — not because the answer would be unfavorable, but because no answer derived from this evidence would mean anything.
How firm is this? The multiplier ranges 1.32–1.81 across defensible method choices, a 27% spread. Every value in that range describes the same project analyzed a different way. Plan against the conservative end of that spread, 1.32.
Our record. No forecast from this practice has yet been checked against what happened. These figures carry the uncertainty of an unvalidated method.