PROVISIONALPROVISIONAL — STRUCTURAL DEMONSTRATION ONLY. The figures in this document rest on illustrative or incomplete inputs. They show what the analysis produces, not what the economy does. Not for distribution, citation, or decision-making.

Basalt Sea Press — reviewer pack

Reviewer pack — Regional Sports and Events Complex — Economic Impact

Everything needed to attack this study: where each number came from, what checked it, how to re-run it, and what it does not establish.

Prepared for Illustrative County Board of Commissioners · Illustrative Region · 2024 dollars · evidence tier illustrative

How to read this

This document is not the study. It is the study taken apart, written for someone whose job is to find the weakest number in it and pull. Every figure here is read from the same run the report was written from — nothing is recomputed, so the two cannot disagree.

Where this pack has nothing to show, it says so in place rather than rendering nothing. A blank is indistinguishable from a section that was dropped, and that distinction is the reason this document exists.

What is in this pack

1Credibility gate ruling
Was this cleared to leave the building, and on what conditions?
2Headline numbers, traced
Where does each number come from, and what would break it?
3Validation register
What was checked, and what did the checks actually say?
4Evidence base
How strong is the evidence, and what sets the floor?
5How to reproduce this
Can someone else get these numbers from the same inputs?
6What this study does not establish
What is outside what the method can support?
7Declared, and not carried
Is a missing section an empty study, or a dropped one?

Credibility gate ruling

Provisional only — must be stamped throughout

Ruling

illustrative

Evidence tier of the headlines

yes

Cleared the blocking gate

not the same as cleared for distribution - see the stamp below

May state a verdict

the decision layer's conclusion

Required stamp

PROVISIONAL — STRUCTURAL DEMONSTRATION ONLY. The figures in this document rest on illustrative or incomplete inputs. They show what the analysis produces, not what the economy does. Not for distribution, citation, or decision-making.

Findings

Headline numbers rest on illustrative inputs and are not findings. Contaminating quantities: Leontief total requirements, induced effects, occupational composition, purchaser-to-producer price conversion, regional accounts, tax revenue.

Required disclosures

These must appear wherever the numbers appear. A deliverable that drops one is out of compliance with its own review.

This report contains 8 proprietary decision-layer analyses, presented in a separately labeled section. They are Project Red Team decision-layer output, not standard input-output output, and a reviewer reproducing the federal method will not reproduce them.
The supplied table method has no completed forecast-versus-outcome record yet. Results carry the uncertainty of an unvalidated method.
7 methodological warnings are recorded in the limiting-conditions section and must appear in the delivered report.

Quantities dragging the tier down

These are the specific entries that set the study's evidence tier. Replacing them is what raises it.

Leontief total requirements
induced effects
occupational composition
purchaser-to-producer price conversion
regional accounts
tax revenue

Headline numbers, traced

Each figure below is followed by the method that produced it, the ledger entries it rests on, the inputs behind those entries, and every validation check that touched it. The evidence tier shown is the weakest link in the chain, not the tier of the last step — contamination flows downhill and there is no laundering it.

One limit on this section, stated because a reviewer would find it anyway: the provenance ledger is kept for the study, not per phase. Entries that name a phase are filtered to the figure they belong to; entries that name none — the regional table, the margin conversion, the inverse — are shown under every figure that rests on them, because they do.

Total output effect — Construction illustrative

$11.1M

One-time total over the phase; employment is job-years of temporary work, not permanent positions.

Method: Leontief total requirements applied to the phase's local final-demand vector

x = (I - A)^-1 f

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Total labor income — Construction illustrative

$3.8M

One-time total over the phase; employment is job-years of temporary work, not permanent positions.

Method: Labor income coefficients applied to the modeled output vector

li_i = x_i * (labor income_i^r / x_i^r)

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Total value added — Construction illustrative

$8.1M

One-time total over the phase; employment is job-years of temporary work, not permanent positions.

Method: Value-added coefficients applied to the modeled output vector

va_i = x_i * (value added_i^r / x_i^r)

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Total employment — Construction illustrative

92.9

One-time total over the phase; employment is job-years of temporary work, not permanent positions.

Method: Employment-output ratios applied to the modeled output vector

e_i = x_i * (e_i^r / x_i^r)

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Output multiplier — Construction illustrative

1.870

Dimensionless. Total effect per dollar of direct effect.

Method: Total effect divided by direct effect on the same table

m = x_total / x_direct

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
ordering	info	Type I 1.3208 <= Type II 1.7912
plausible	info	Type II output multiplier 1.791 within published range
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1

Total output effect — Annual Operations illustrative

$6.4M

Recurring annually at full operation.

Method: Leontief total requirements applied to the phase's local final-demand vector

x = (I - A)^-1 f

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—
displacement adjustment: Annual Operations x2	net-new demand adjustment	derived	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—
displacement_share	0.28	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Total labor income — Annual Operations illustrative

$2.3M

Recurring annually at full operation.

Method: Labor income coefficients applied to the modeled output vector

li_i = x_i * (labor income_i^r / x_i^r)

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—
displacement adjustment: Annual Operations x2	net-new demand adjustment	derived	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—
displacement_share	0.28	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Total value added — Annual Operations illustrative

$4.9M

Recurring annually at full operation.

Method: Value-added coefficients applied to the modeled output vector

va_i = x_i * (value added_i^r / x_i^r)

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—
displacement adjustment: Annual Operations x2	net-new demand adjustment	derived	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—
displacement_share	0.28	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Total employment — Annual Operations illustrative

64.0

Recurring annually at full operation.

Method: Employment-output ratios applied to the modeled output vector

e_i = x_i * (e_i^r / x_i^r)

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—
displacement adjustment: Annual Operations x2	net-new demand adjustment	derived	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—
displacement_share	0.28	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Output multiplier — Annual Operations illustrative

1.815

Dimensionless. Total effect per dollar of direct effect.

Method: Total effect divided by direct effect on the same table

m = x_total / x_direct

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
ordering	info	Type I 1.3208 <= Type II 1.7912
plausible	info	Type II output multiplier 1.791 within published range
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1

Output over the horizon illustrative

$71.0M

Undiscounted sum of nominal annual effects across the modeled years.

Method: Phased annual effects summed without discounting

sum_t x_t

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—
displacement adjustment: Annual Operations x2	net-new demand adjustment	derived	—	—
multi-year impact stream	phased timeline with ramped activity levels	derived	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—
displacement_share	0.28	—
years	12	—
discount_rate	0.04	—
base_year	2,026	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.
Timeline covers 2026-2037. Annual activities are held at their final ramp level through the horizon; one-time activities occur only in their scheduled years.
Impacts are discounted to 2026 dollars at 4.0% for present-value reporting; undiscounted sums are reported alongside them.
The model is static: it assumes regional production technology and trade patterns do not change over the horizon. For horizons beyond roughly ten years that assumption weakens materially.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Output, present value illustrative

$57.1M

Discounted to the base year at 4.0%.

Method: Phased annual effects discounted to the base year

PV = sum_t x_t / (1 + r)^t

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—
displacement adjustment: Annual Operations x2	net-new demand adjustment	derived	—	—
multi-year impact stream	phased timeline with ramped activity levels	derived	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—
displacement_share	0.28	—
years	12	—
discount_rate	0.04	—
base_year	2,026	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.
Timeline covers 2026-2037. Annual activities are held at their final ramp level through the horizon; one-time activities occur only in their scheduled years.
Impacts are discounted to 2026 dollars at 4.0% for present-value reporting; undiscounted sums are reported alongside them.
The model is static: it assumes regional production technology and trade patterns do not change over the horizon. For horizons beyond roughly ten years that assumption weakens materially.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Steady-state employment illustrative

64.0

Annual-phase employment once the ramp is complete.

Method: Annual-phase employment at full ramp

e_steady = max_t e_t over annual phases

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—
displacement adjustment: Annual Operations x2	net-new demand adjustment	derived	—	—
multi-year impact stream	phased timeline with ramped activity levels	derived	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—
displacement_share	0.28	—
years	12	—
discount_rate	0.04	—
base_year	2,026	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.
Timeline covers 2026-2037. Annual activities are held at their final ramp level through the horizon; one-time activities occur only in their scheduled years.
Impacts are discounted to 2026 dollars at 4.0% for present-value reporting; undiscounted sums are reported alongside them.
The model is static: it assumes regional production technology and trade patterns do not change over the horizon. For horizons beyond roughly ten years that assumption weakens materially.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Total tax revenue — recurring illustrative

$1.5M

Recurring annually at full operation. All levels of government, on the modeled tax bases.

Method: Effective rates applied to modeled value-added tax bases

revenue = base x effective rate x institutional share

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
tax revenue x2	effective rates applied to modeled value-added tax bases	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—
displacement adjustment: Annual Operations x2	net-new demand adjustment	derived	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
structure	Illustrative County	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
personal_income_rate	0.115	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
social_insurance_rate	0.152	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
corporate_profits_rate	0.135	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—
displacement_share	0.28	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Taxes on production and imports are treated as revenue and allocated across levels of government rather than re-rated.
Effective rates are jurisdiction averages, not a modeled tax code.
Tax bases are recomputed per effect round so the fiscal table reconciles to the impact table.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_rates	warn	tax rates are illustrative placeholders; fiscal tables built on them cannot be published as findings
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
rates	info	effective rates within a plausible range
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Sub-national tax revenue — recurring illustrative

$714,357

Recurring annually at full operation. State, local and tribal combined — what a regional body keeps; federal is excluded.

Method: Effective rates applied to modeled value-added tax bases

revenue = base x effective rate x institutional share

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
tax revenue x2	effective rates applied to modeled value-added tax bases	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—
displacement adjustment: Annual Operations x2	net-new demand adjustment	derived	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
structure	Illustrative County	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
personal_income_rate	0.115	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
social_insurance_rate	0.152	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
corporate_profits_rate	0.135	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—
displacement_share	0.28	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Taxes on production and imports are treated as revenue and allocated across levels of government rather than re-rated.
Effective rates are jurisdiction averages, not a modeled tax code.
Tax bases are recomputed per effect round so the fiscal table reconciles to the impact table.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_rates	warn	tax rates are illustrative placeholders; fiscal tables built on them cannot be published as findings
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
rates	info	effective rates within a plausible range
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Total tax revenue — one-time illustrative

$2.5M

One-time total over the build phase. It arrives once and does not recur. All levels of government, on the modeled tax bases.

Method: Effective rates applied to modeled value-added tax bases

revenue = base x effective rate x institutional share

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
tax revenue x2	effective rates applied to modeled value-added tax bases	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—
displacement adjustment: Annual Operations x2	net-new demand adjustment	derived	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
structure	Illustrative County	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
personal_income_rate	0.115	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
social_insurance_rate	0.152	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
corporate_profits_rate	0.135	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—
displacement_share	0.28	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Taxes on production and imports are treated as revenue and allocated across levels of government rather than re-rated.
Effective rates are jurisdiction averages, not a modeled tax code.
Tax bases are recomputed per effect round so the fiscal table reconciles to the impact table.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_rates	warn	tax rates are illustrative placeholders; fiscal tables built on them cannot be published as findings
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
rates	info	effective rates within a plausible range
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Sub-national tax revenue — one-time illustrative

$1.2M

One-time total over the build phase. It arrives once and does not recur. State, local and tribal combined — what a regional body keeps; federal is excluded.

Method: Effective rates applied to modeled value-added tax bases

revenue = base x effective rate x institutional share

What this figure rests on
Ledger entry	Method	Tier	Source	Vintage
regional accounts	industry-by-industry social accounting matrix	illustrative	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy	2024
Leontief total requirements	Leontief inverse of the regional direct-requirements matrix	illustrative	—	—
induced effects	household closure at the accounts-implied consumption rate	illustrative	—	—
purchaser-to-producer price conversion x16	margin allocation	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication	—
spending event: Sitework and structures x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Equipment x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
tax revenue x2	effective rates applied to modeled value-added tax bases	illustrative	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals	—
spending event: Visitor spending: ACC x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: RET x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: MFG x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: TRN x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: PRO x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending event: Visitor spending: HLT x2	purchaser-price spending converted to local producer-price demand	estimated	—	—
spending pattern: Visitor spending x2	expenditure profile allocated across commodities	estimated	—	—
employment event: Facility staff x2	job count converted to industry output	estimated	—	—
displacement adjustment: Annual Operations x2	net-new demand adjustment	derived	—	—

Inputs to the chain above
Input	Value	Source and vintage
region	Illustrative Region	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
n_sectors	12	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
coverage	regional	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
total_output	2,400,000,000	Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
consumption_rate	0.58	—
closure	type_ii	—
n_commodities_with_margins	12	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
default_producer_share	1	Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
commodity	CON	—
purchaser_value	8,500,000	—
local_final_demand	5,270,000	—
commodity	MFG	—
purchaser_value	1,500,000	—
local_final_demand	645,000	—
structure	Illustrative County	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
personal_income_rate	0.115	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
social_insurance_rate	0.152	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
corporate_profits_rate	0.135	Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
commodity	ACC	—
purchaser_value	1,596,000	—
local_final_demand	1,596,000	—
commodity	RET	—
purchaser_value	912,000	—
local_final_demand	912,000	—
purchaser_value	380,000	—
local_final_demand	161,120	—
commodity	TRN	—
purchaser_value	342,000	—
local_final_demand	342,000	—
commodity	PRO	—
purchaser_value	304,000	—
local_final_demand	304,000	—
commodity	HLT	—
purchaser_value	266,000	—
local_final_demand	266,000	—
total	3,800,000	—
commodities	6	—
sector	ACC	—
jobs	22	—
implied_output	1,294,118	—
displacement_share	0.28	—

Assumptions carried by this figure:

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Taxes on production and imports are treated as revenue and allocated across levels of government rather than re-rated.
Effective rates are jurisdiction averages, not a modeled tax code.
Tax bases are recomputed per effect round so the fiscal table reconciles to the impact table.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.

Validation checks bearing on this figure
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
illustrative_rates	warn	tax rates are illustrative placeholders; fiscal tables built on them cannot be published as findings
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
rates	info	effective rates within a plausible range
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Validation register

Checks run

Errors

arithmetically invalid

Warnings

raw warning checks before duplicate messages are collapsed

Passed

Subject: study: Regional Sports and Events Complex — Economic Impact
Check	Outcome	What it says
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
assumption	warn	Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region. (x2)
illustrative_rates	warn	tax rates are illustrative placeholders; fiscal tables built on them cannot be published as findings
illustrative_study	warn	this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.
balance	info	industry AGR row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry UTL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry CON row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry MFG row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry WHL row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry RET row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry TRN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry FIN row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry PRO row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry HLT row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	industry ACC row/column balance balances within tolerance
balance	info	total output vs total sales balances within tolerance
consumption_rate	info	local consumption per $1 labor income = 0.580
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0093 >= 1
diagonal	info	minimum diagonal 1.0210 >= 1
margins	info	12 commodity margin structures defined
non_negative	info	intermediate flows Z is non-negative
non_negative	info	industry output is non-negative
non_negative	info	employment is non-negative
ordering	info	Type I 1.3208 <= Type II 1.7912
plausible	info	Type II output multiplier 1.791 within published range
productive	info	spectral radius 0.2429 < 1
productive	info	spectral radius 0.5898 < 1
rates	info	effective rates within a plausible range
resolved	info	2 events -> $5,915,000 local final demand (x2)
resolved	info	2 events -> $3,510,171 local final demand (x2)

Evidence base

Ledger entries

illustrative

Tier of the headline numbers

the weakest BASE input

illustrative

Tier of the whole study

including the decision layer

Headlines publishable as findings

How many recorded quantities sit at each tier
Evidence tier	What it means	Entries
published	Published federal source	0
derived	Derived by standard method	15
estimated	Modeled estimate	20
illustrative	ILLUSTRATIVE — not a finding	22

What sets the floor

These entries are at the study's weakest tier. Every figure downstream of them inherits it.

Leontief total requirements
induced effects
occupational composition
purchaser-to-producer price conversion
regional accounts
tax revenue

The decision layer

These quantities are Project Red Team decision-layer output, not standard input-output method. A reviewer working from published federal sources will not reproduce them, and none of them is a study headline.

belief over rival theses
case geometry
epistemic quality
flat evidence observation view
forecast accuracy of the practice
recommendation strength
stakeholder lens verdicts
what would change the verdict

Sources behind the study

Project Red Team synthetic region generator — structural placeholder, not an observed economy (2024)
Project Red Team illustrative margin rates — replace with BEA supply-table margins before publication
Project Red Team illustrative rates — replace with jurisdiction actuals
Project Red Team illustrative staffing patterns — replace with BLS OES industry-occupation matrix for the study region

Every assumption on the record

Fixed production technology: input proportions do not change with the scale of the shock.
No supply constraints: the region can meet added demand without price effects or capacity limits.
Linearity: effects scale proportionally with the shock.
Local consumption per $1 of local labor income = $0.580, taken from the household column of the regional accounts rather than assumed.
Retail and wholesale margins are recorded as output of the trade sectors, not of the sector that produced the good.
Only the margin portion of a retail purchase is local unless the good itself is produced in the region.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 62%.
Share of margin activity occurring locally: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 5%.
Taxes on production and imports are treated as revenue and allocated across levels of government rather than re-rated.
Effective rates are jurisdiction averages, not a modeled tax code.
Tax bases are recomputed per effect round so the fiscal table reconciles to the impact table.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 100%.
Local purchase percentage for the commodity: 4%.
Spending profile covers 6 commodities and sums to 100% of the stated total.
The 22 stated jobs have the same output per worker as the regional average for ACC.
Stated employment replaces the coefficient-derived direct job count; indirect and induced jobs still come from the model.
28% of this activity's demand is spending that would have occurred elsewhere in the region anyway, and is therefore displacement rather than new economic activity.
The adjustment nets demand and household income. A stated direct job count is preserved rather than fractionally reduced; any offsetting regional jobs must be modeled as a separate displaced activity.
Basis: Intercept surveys at three comparable facilities.
Timeline covers 2026-2037. Annual activities are held at their final ramp level through the horizon; one-time activities occur only in their scheduled years.
Impacts are discounted to 2026 dollars at 4.0% for present-value reporting; undiscounted sums are reported alongside them.
The model is static: it assumes regional production technology and trade patterns do not change over the horizon. For horizons beyond roughly ten years that assumption weakens materially.
Sources compose multiplicatively, which treats each as a proportional perturbation of the level rather than an additive one. That is right for a multiplier and for output, and would be wrong for a figure that can cross zero.
INDEPENDENT resamples each source separately and is the conventional combination; it understates the tail whenever the optimistic ends of two sources tend to occur together, which they do when the same analyst chooses both.
ALIGNED pairs equal percentiles across sources and is the widest defensible reading. The truth lies between the two and neither is a forecast.
The closure is an analyst's choice, not a property of the region. Reporting one closure's result without the others' range overstates the precision of the finding.
Coefficients carry a 15% coefficient of variation, stated rather than measured.
Perturbations are independent across cells, which understates spread where errors are correlated — as they are when a whole table comes from one source.
0 of 200 draws were discarded as non-productive rather than clamped.
New jobs follow the sector's existing occupational mix.
A facility with an unusual staffing model will not match this; where the operator has a staffing plan, use it instead.
Project Red Team decision layer applied to the base analysis, not standard input-output output. A reviewer reproducing the federal method will not reproduce it.

How to reproduce this

Run from the repository root, in this order. The engine depends on numpy and Python 3.11+; on this machine the verified interpreter is /opt/homebrew/bin/python3.12.

Command	What it establishes
`/opt/homebrew/bin/python3.12 cli.py validate examples/field_complex.json`	Check the model's arithmetic without rendering anything.
`/opt/homebrew/bin/python3.12 cli.py run examples/field_complex.json -o report.html --json result.json`	Reproduce the study, the report, and the machine-readable result.
`/opt/homebrew/bin/python3.12 cli.py reviewer examples/field_complex.json`	Run the identity checks a hostile reviewer would run on the model.
`/opt/homebrew/bin/python3.12 tests/run_all.py`	Run the engine's own suite. Exit code 0 means the algebra is sound.
`grep -E '^[0-9a-f]{64} ' research/DATA_MANIFEST.md \| shasum -a 256 -c -`	Verify every tracked input against the checksums below.

The run this pack was rendered from
What	Value
Python	3.12.13
numpy	2.4.4
Code revision	c79ee75d4176e7921db4affdf3374b5dcc2de3fa
Working tree	MODIFIED at render time — the revision above does not describe the code that ran
Study configuration	sha256:2dc95a2c1cc139cd08c8624000fcc7e89139d4a987cde9886623d250c4cd9fe0

Reproduction is not exact

The working tree had uncommitted changes when this pack was rendered. A reviewer who checks out the revision above will not get the code that produced these numbers.

Input files and their checksums

A checksum that does not match is a different file, and anything computed from it is a different finding. Files this study's configuration names are marked; the rest are the repository's other tracked inputs, listed so a reviewer can see what was available and not used.

46 tracked inputs; 0 named by this study
File	Bytes	SHA-256	Source
data/geo/FEMA_100_Year_Flood_Plain_-121_640_43_540_.geojson	1,370,807	c6ce94088c51f501a6f4944b66a086ba303ab29d9ccb8b36b622868a2c166a32	Deschutes County open data, FEMA flood hazard layers
data/geo/Taxlots_-121_640_43_540_13812267.geojson	80,155	1cf69ec32592af9dab3ad6c6730bc436dae002bdf828db70fecda40434a9ff61	Deschutes County open data, assessor taxlots
data/geo/Taxlots_-121_640_43_540_88597656.geojson	80,155	1cf69ec32592af9dab3ad6c6730bc436dae002bdf828db70fecda40434a9ff61	Deschutes County open data, assessor taxlots
data/geo/Zoning_Sage_Grouse_Habitat_Area_-121_640_43_540_.geojson	107	8513c036b7af0b56f185ad51bea7b6c970da9dd0aa47a618d0839db1762e6e88	Deschutes County open data, zoning combining zones (DCC 18.88)
data/geo/Zoning_Sensitive_Bird_Mammal_Habitat_-121_640_43_540_.geojson	157,959	36a80a1bafe07d8a8075ef17a039bba1ab2c3adb2e4e07dbb027d88b5939e0ff	Deschutes County open data, zoning combining zones (DCC 18.88)
data/geo/Zoning_Wildlife_Area_-121_640_43_540_.geojson	24,941	2a03ec85307e141b610f14a3e8c7c6a46a97b3a48e21b01a5ae7212e973779c9	Deschutes County open data, zoning combining zones (DCC 18.88)
data/geo/osm_39_50_-124_50_46_00_-117_00_7.geojson	63,764,125	2f0174f76566260023010bdae5053d3b049e1675437320b74b70f9a5dd7c05bf	OpenStreetMap major road network via Overpass API
data/lodes/or_od.csv.gz	9,683,435	632d33220d691e6d5296677356054c205a328a371c4fa2f91aa61575b3ccb812	US Census LEHD LODES 8 Origin-Destination
data/lodes/or_rac.csv.gz	1,925,325	8c93daf701e97842cf66b0ed431e87b31802cd2620f90b4d2b37f977a2726a82	US Census LEHD LODES 8 Residence Area Characteristics
data/lodes/or_wac_S000_JT00_2022.csv.gz	955,071	b12f473295766ea462f962f9e6a4af6ee1a17a75c7e27b0086945d32ced16adf	US Census LEHD LODES 8 Workplace Area Characteristics
data/lodes/or_xwalk.csv.gz	2,261,412	05454c7bfc53e07eee50eb6075ea4fe617c754cb89d8d26646cc726f3f4a6ba9	US Census LEHD LODES 8 geography crosswalk
data/regional/boundary_corridor_wide.json	2,771	cb5265af7508b61e63f7b5788883e386e52b9866ee48f85ace47ea4384d845fb	study configuration authored for this engagement
data/regional/boundary_klamath_basin.json	1,810	cdafd96c683ca47320632b54898f7d8482d71ed37a39bc4c318bc4f2d9b251f5	study configuration authored for this engagement
data/regional/boundary_klamath_only.json	1,544	b6e7582d30f7698b75222f94cf249b28129928c40bd2695584465c97eb8fa77f	study configuration authored for this engagement
data/regional/central_oregon_casino.json	2,677	b65c5604fc042c69a7782af235bd8fc89d69249ff90091ce2b5cdc7aad9d95cc	study configuration authored for this engagement
data/regional/corridor_casino.json	12,163	066589937fd74d89a541dcbbba97e181994f1caf5a2f4554fef090a017f13e2e	study configuration authored for this engagement
data/regional/corridor_region.json	2,378	09f3f8f54bda578f418eb6fbfe1fd08e22606b5f6161a9074ad32c2ba385f4f4	study configuration authored for this engagement
data/regional/deschutes_casino.json	2,600	ff8b97648cd36bc18cc0954b85486744d819b5299190102c2fbb8151bd495300	study configuration authored for this engagement
data/regional/gaz_place_06.txt	325,411	659aef519e00663656493fa56961a00e02f94c3de338ae3c57cd342f09aae197	US Census Bureau Gazetteer Files, places by state
data/regional/gaz_place_41.txt	85,817	921c73cbff13d766a9de2551aa08896eeb552f58320610f3ccb6a5d8e64e3361	US Census Bureau Gazetteer Files, places by state
data/regional/klamath_real.json	1,504	e6955a91549f1ad30ce8078a13624ef33b1a397211bf78174cbb33f9b33afd72	study configuration authored for this engagement
data/regional/klamath_region.json	676	6fef755fd84c5756efaafea57cd911d786d9047dd3bcee1663abbd3e866bc737	study configuration authored for this engagement
data/regional/klamath_study.json	1,210	e55c243a516d76d488ea981411da764dc83fb9db2a09eba6b26542dad6a6e3ec	study configuration authored for this engagement
data/regional/la_pine_kbarj.json	8,862	e7e8a2d56111c43d1a0e07b2fbc54c1bc5696d3341614e7947743bc5691ef402	study configuration authored for this engagement
data/regional/qcew_06035_2023.csv	115,004	78e1a45576516139d06f0c3d4bafb596bc1ed4bcafa5fdf15c9a0092954ce534	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_06049_2023.csv	73,781	67ebd12c48aba9ac9846ec7d088c28e47679187e824e82820add0a80b1cf35fa	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_06089_2023.csv	250,071	8074851a93543bb795aba95316b32c2d55c6f2a1104e3e28117dfda141eadac6	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_06093_2023.csv	150,861	9875b9d1f0da3de5006cbe9461a80a4c4a3dd0699cf791a302768f194ab9c1c1	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_06103_2023.csv	146,188	8633a8ad009073d4cf945c3ca09f4b5c22d55849a67967765013dbe828f11ddc	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_41013_2023.csv	121,921	c160271c34c59beb7b3bfa660655edfa37a02992b1c762917d2f4f343de462c4	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_41017_2023.csv	301,866	d9c510f64573cc0246ff8cee4711c74f4961986d72b607de06cd0b8cc390be4f	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_41019_2023.csv	208,346	1998c23891ce53890fbb60a3a2eccbc4bef7deabaa015f3d22e2c9735d4464b7	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_41029_2023.csv	280,021	5871b272369c136358f799b643ce99b4c68e50a7b41bb16e986784506be04d08	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_41031_2023.csv	116,140	a48303c5dc6c1c6a0c926744091d478f333dd3c050ff2eeee4c8cfaddbb2ffab	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_41033_2023.csv	197,337	be1cbe2fbfa2e4badba88a5b12c92be9756b5421ba6c22b8eab9030317136fe6	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_41035_2023.csv	192,126	a5df9e320656b2d4df59719dd72fb9de3dff49c79a843f1a61df47c79e0fb356	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_41037.csv	77,496	d988fc10b20318829d420d6daf8fe1ea6ca17d5596740ef2bbad6caad8adc6be	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_41037_2023.csv	77,496	d988fc10b20318829d420d6daf8fe1ea6ca17d5596740ef2bbad6caad8adc6be	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_41045_2023.csv	142,953	58a4876efea608d16799d5be05a23e75a171326cabf1a13b6001210c8539245f	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_41063_2023.csv	91,340	5943ef2651e70d2de274a370511cd2da337fb25918e286f8f521ad515ce3f7fd	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_klamath_41035_2023.csv	192,126	a5df9e320656b2d4df59719dd72fb9de3dff49c79a843f1a61df47c79e0fb356	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/qcew_us_2023.csv	849,504	fe9ffe874f6e657f6bb1558971965ce6acc015ace45d831ed32c90d97097aee9	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/quarterly/qcew_41017_2023q1.csv	315,588	5804da4a84c7f62db33301587aa3354630b375dbfc5fcd110470c4395a6da641	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/quarterly/qcew_41017_2023q2.csv	315,921	7dbc9227d21566ff993b2f190768f38347385f10350aa023975d4727deb8c04f	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/quarterly/qcew_41017_2023q3.csv	316,526	81311b194d6fd9210867817cf8f60cd9f54b28c1c17febb7fc5dbbbac676236a	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year
data/regional/quarterly/qcew_41017_2023q4.csv	314,862	5d1fc40f669e8ccb059a2cccb99e579e3f5270d8534b5d4c010ef548ba1ef807	BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year

Where the inputs came from

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, annual singlefile by county-year — https://www.bls.gov/cew/downloadable-data-files.htm
Deschutes County open data, FEMA flood hazard layers — https://data.deschutes.org/
Deschutes County open data, assessor taxlots — https://data.deschutes.org/
Deschutes County open data, zoning combining zones (DCC 18.88) — https://data.deschutes.org/
OpenStreetMap major road network via Overpass API — https://overpass-api.de/api/interpreter
US Census Bureau Gazetteer Files, places by state — https://www.census.gov/geographies/reference-files/time-series/geo/gazetteer-files.html
US Census LEHD LODES 8 Origin-Destination — https://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/lodes/LODES8/
US Census LEHD LODES 8 Residence Area Characteristics — https://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/lodes/LODES8/
US Census LEHD LODES 8 Workplace Area Characteristics — https://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/lodes/LODES8/
US Census LEHD LODES 8 geography crosswalk — https://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/lodes/LODES8/
study configuration authored for this engagement — —

What this study does not establish

Everything below is outside what the method can support. None of it is a defect in the run; all of it is a limit on what the numbers may be used to argue.

That the modeled activity would not have happened anyway. An impact model answers what activity is associated with a demand, not what the region would look like without it. Results are gross except where a displacement adjustment is explicitly applied.
That the region can supply what the model spends. No supply constraint is imposed. In a tight labor market some of the modeled employment is workers moving between employers rather than net new hiring.
That firms buy the same way at a different scale. Industries are modeled buying inputs in fixed proportions regardless of how much they produce. Real firms substitute as prices and volumes move.
That prices and wages hold still. Added demand is assumed not to bid up local wages, rents or materials. Where it does, part of the modeled output is price rather than volume.
That effects scale smoothly. The model is linear: no thresholds, no capacity cliffs, no economies of scale. A shock twice the size produces exactly twice the effect.
That the same numbers hold for a different boundary. Every figure is specific to the region as drawn. A reviewer who redraws the region gets a different study, not a rounding difference.

Conditions specific to this study

Nothing at all, as a finding. The headline numbers rest on illustrative inputs and are a demonstration of the method, not a measurement of this economy.
Anything beyond 12 years. Effects after the modeled horizon are not estimated, and the present value stops there.
Whether the regional labor market can absorb the modeled hiring. No regional-conditions record was attached to this run, so every employment figure is gross of local slack.
Whether the new activity pays for the public services it needs. Revenue is modeled; no service-cost structure was supplied, so there is no cost side to set against it.
How much of the supply chain leaks out of the region as measured rather than assumed. No import comparison was available for this study.
Any conclusion of the decision layer, by federal method. Those quantities are Project Red Team decision-layer output; a reviewer working from published sources will not reproduce them and is not asked to.

What this study could not report

Nothing to show

Nothing was declared unavailable. The run did not record any section it wanted to produce and could not. Read that against the declared-missing table below.

Warnings raised during the run

tax rates are illustrative placeholders; fiscal tables built on them cannot be published as findings
Visitor spending: ACC: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region.
Visitor spending: RET: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region.
Visitor spending: TRN: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region.
Visitor spending: PRO: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region.
Visitor spending: HLT: local purchase percentage is 100%. Verify this — it assumes nothing was bought from outside the region.
this study rests on at least one illustrative input, so its numbers are structural placeholders rather than findings. The contaminating inputs are listed in the provenance appendix.

Declared, and not carried

The bundle declares which quantities each outward surface carries. Listed below is what was declared and resolved to nothing. An empty study and a dropped section produce the same silence in a report; here they do not.

report

21 of 60 declared quantities carried.

ablation
adjusted
backtest
boundary_evidence
cannibalization
capital_structure
claims
community_context
commute_flows
comparables
conditions
data_quality
decay_fit
decay_sensitivity
demand_backtest
diagnostics
downside_floor
drift
earnings_place
earnings_profile
federation
held_out
housing
information
market_distances
market_geometry
panel
payroll_check
propagation
regulatory_screen
relative_scale
replay
road_access
sobol
tornado
trade_area
unavailable
unavailable_reason
verdict

onepager

4 of 10 declared quantities carried.

adjusted
cannibalization
conditions
diagnostics
trade_area
verdict

json

12 of 42 declared quantities carried.

ablation
adjusted
api_evidence_atoms
backtest
boundary_evidence
cannibalization
capital_structure
community_context
commute_flows
conditions
data_quality
decay_fit
decay_sensitivity
demand_backtest
diagnostics
downside_floor
drift
earnings_profile
evidence_atoms
federation
held_out
housing
panel
payroll_check
regulatory_screen
relative_scale
road_access
sobol
trade_area
verdict

console

3 of 5 declared quantities carried.

conditions
verdict