{ "version": "location_decision.v1", "candidate_source": { "kind": "corridor", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep", "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "evidence_tier": "derived", "interval_miles": 20, "route": "US 97", "route_polyline_version": "route_polyline.v1", "polyline_file": "data/regional/us97_route_polyline.json", "route_source_file": "data/geo/osm_39_50_-124_50_46_00_-117_00_7.geojson", "route_source_sha256": "2f0174f76566260023010bdae5053d3b049e1675437320b74b70f9a5dd7c05bf", "route_source_timestamp": "2026-08-30T21:40:50Z", "simplification_tolerance_miles": 0.2, "route_length_miles": 347.117, "use_limit": "Interval points are corridor screening candidates, not parcel selections or entitlement findings.", "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift." ], "interval_method": "route polyline interval sampling", "endpoint_method": "polyline file" }, "route_provenance": { "route": "US 97", "route_polyline_version": "route_polyline.v1", "route_source_file": "data/geo/osm_39_50_-124_50_46_00_-117_00_7.geojson", "route_source_sha256": "2f0174f76566260023010bdae5053d3b049e1675437320b74b70f9a5dd7c05bf", "route_source_timestamp": "2026-08-30T21:40:50Z", "route_length_miles": 347.117, "simplification_tolerance_miles": 0.2, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "evidence_tier": "derived", "use_limit": "Interval points are corridor screening candidates, not parcel selections or entitlement findings.", "candidate_source_kind": "corridor", "interval_miles": 20, "interval_method": "route polyline interval sampling", "endpoint_method": "polyline file" }, "selected": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_10", "headline": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 200 leads this comparison on the evidence in the pack. The ranking has not been shown to hold, so it is a provisional leader and not yet a site recommendation. It leads US-97 20-mile sweep mile 220 by 0.0056 on the 0-to-1 weighted scale this pack ranks on, where 1 is the best any candidate achieved on a component and 0 the worst. Confidence: a thin margin over the runner-up. Conditions: none specific to this candidate; the ones this comparison stands on are under Run Limits.", "runner_up": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_11", "runner_up_margin": 0.0056547905489960915, "confidence": "thin", "release_safety": "release-safe", "artifact_release_safety": "release-safe", "recommendation_decision_safety": "not release-safe", "release_label": "comparison_safe_no_recommendation", "claim_licenses": { "corridor_narrowing": { "status": "allowed", "reason": "the candidate evidence clears the artifact release gate", "limit": "May narrow the field; may not name the site that gets built." }, "provisional_leader": { "status": "allowed", "reason": "a scored leading candidate exists in a release-safe artifact", "limit": "Names the current leader only as provisional." }, "pairwise_order": { "status": "withheld", "reason": "withheld until pairwise rank stability clears its recorded threshold", "limit": "May describe pairwise ordering, not exact final order." }, "top_set": { "status": "withheld", "reason": "withheld until top-set stability clears its recorded threshold", "limit": "May describe the stable leading set, not a final single-site recommendation." }, "exact_rank_order": { "status": "withheld", "reason": "withheld until every rank-stability measure clears", "limit": "May describe the order measured in this run." }, "final_site_recommendation": { "status": "withheld", "reason": "withheld until candidate evidence and rank stability both clear", "limit": "May recommend a site only inside the stated evidence bounds." }, "rank_stability_measured": { "status": "withheld", "reason": "rank stability propagation is not recorded", "limit": "Measurement is a model check, not proof that a site gets built." } }, "recommendation_escrow": { "active": true, "withheld_claim": "final site recommendation", "release_label": "comparison_safe_no_recommendation", "why_withheld": [ "rank stability has not been measured", "Generated interval candidates are route-screening points and do not replace parcel selection, access engineering, or entitlement review.", "A provisional leader is not a site recommendation unless rank stability is measured and established.", "Correlated candidate propagation has not been run; ranking is a deterministic comparison of the supplied or solved components." ], "release_conditions": [ "run rank-stability propagation" ], "partial_candidate_names": [], "current_use": "release-safe corridor comparison" }, "run_diagnostics": { "candidate_study_runs": { "requested": true, "total": 19, "completed": 19, "partial": 0 }, "source_call_stats": { "cached_requests": 16, "reused_requests": 288, "new_requests": 16, "cached_failures": 0, "reused_failures": 0, "new_failures": 0 } }, "rank_stability": { "status": "not_established", "measured": false, "thresholds": {}, "pairwise_stability": null, "top_set_stability": null, "exact_rank_stability": null, "method": "", "iterations": 0, "flip_drivers": [], "flip_conditions": [ "A small movement in weighted components could move US-97 20-mile sweep mile 220 ahead of US-97 20-mile sweep mile 200; run correlated propagation before making this a final siting recommendation." ] }, "rank_stability_verdicts": [], "decision_rule": { "metric": "weighted_score", "direction": "above", "threshold": 0.0, "rank_by": "weighted_score", "phase_aggregation": "steady_state_annual" }, "candidates": [ { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_10", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 200", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 1, "score": 0.6857417100687436, "latitude": 43.97887538061968, "longitude": -121.34381015316274, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 200.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 415301.3137167178, "annual_employment": 3.033301242004387, "annual_labor_income": 135860.7993459187, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884357, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 85010.47595594847, "local_capture": 79718.86595482274, "displacement_share": 0.9377534363662688, "net_displacement_share": 0.7502027490930151, "net_new_capture": 21235.383192090267, "diverted_share": 1.0, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.0641830784171402, "decay": 1.0 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 415301.3137167178, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.03181519082741238, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 3.033301242004387, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.031815190827412174, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 85010.47595594847, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 1.0 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 21235.383192090267, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.9964111727788977, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.7502027490930151, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.03181519082741231, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.0641830784171402, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.8317575536852891, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 1.0 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 1, is at the lower edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 5 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 1.0 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_11", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 220", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 2, "score": 0.6800869195197475, "latitude": 44.24295202125749, "longitude": -121.19270842495692, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 220.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 442062.45699475426, "annual_employment": 3.228760795012437, "annual_labor_income": 144615.38354076844, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884357, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 80121.61018735408, "local_capture": 73522.2274686368, "displacement_share": 0.9176329244596375, "net_displacement_share": 0.7341063395677101, "net_new_capture": 21303.828212444623, "diverted_share": 1.0, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.06061950854036564, "decay": 1.0 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 442062.45699475426, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.06387163086968602, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 3.228760795012437, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.06387163086968595, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 80121.61018735408, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.9364198882112504, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 1.0 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 21303.828212444623, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.7341063395677101, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.06387163086968602, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.06061950854036564, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.8720454524082831, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 1.0 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 1, is at the lower edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 4 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 1.0 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_13", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 260", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 3, "score": 0.5855552256202516, "latitude": 44.76326622304247, "longitude": -120.99526265639545, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 260.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 509767.2487892418, "annual_employment": 3.723266885546868, "annual_labor_income": 166764.18690097748, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884354, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 58518.197498875714, "local_capture": 50719.40162674296, "displacement_share": 0.8667287065312873, "net_displacement_share": 0.6933829652250298, "net_new_capture": 17942.676197481345, "diverted_share": 0.9999999999999999, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.04930159457991587, "decay": 2.5 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 509767.2487892418, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.14497334525405964, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 3.723266885546868, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.14497334525405944, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 58518.197498875714, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.6554656835416354, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 2.5 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 17942.676197481345, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.8237622871158198, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.6933829652250298, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.1449733452540596, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.04930159457991587, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 2.5 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 2.5, is at the upper edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 4 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 2.5 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_00", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 0", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 4, "score": 0.5478545303816038, "latitude": 41.4166214, "longitude": -122.3842129, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 1223554.8928327446, "annual_employment": 8.936669481911895, "annual_labor_income": 400271.17731983936, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884352, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 17557.500624167227, "local_capture": 5795.091218363891, "displacement_share": 0.33006356328344194, "net_displacement_share": 0.26405085062675354, "net_new_capture": 12921.427649476114, "diverted_share": 1.0, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.07311823408931516, "decay": 1.0 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 1223554.8928327446, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 8.936669481911895, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 17557.500624167227, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.12276836487751246, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 1.0 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 12921.427649476114, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5604795328744525, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.26405085062675354, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 1.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.07311823408931516, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.7307412528289716, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 1.0 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 1, is at the lower edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 3 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 1.0 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_03", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 60", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 5, "score": 0.4798760442429527, "latitude": 42.087216046468725, "longitude": -121.8422078870658, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 60.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 1113818.4677357648, "annual_employment": 8.13517036898869, "annual_labor_income": 364372.2337368948, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884354, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 18951.39357217733, "local_capture": 7818.766866979956, "displacement_share": 0.41256949454412367, "net_displacement_share": 0.33005559563529896, "net_new_capture": 12696.380078593365, "diverted_share": 0.999999999999999, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.11836317802719762, "decay": 1.0 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 1113818.4677357648, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.8685497441186714, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 8.13517036898869, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.8685497441186713, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 18951.39357217733, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.140896060267585, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 1.0 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 12696.380078593365, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5486794509364895, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.33005559563529896, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.8685497441186713, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.11836317802719762, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.2192250535881107, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 1.0 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 1, is at the lower edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 3 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 1.0 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_01", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 20", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 6, "score": 0.47791886634157027, "latitude": 41.629711204932676, "longitude": -122.1943261704474, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 20.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 1126613.7374625476, "annual_employment": 8.22862518425688, "annual_labor_income": 368558.0513962945, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884359, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 15703.33265431461, "local_capture": 6327.646916960795, "displacement_share": 0.4029493010340213, "net_displacement_share": 0.32235944082721707, "net_new_capture": 10641.215120745976, "diverted_share": 0.9999999999999989, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.07824286222090683, "decay": 1.0 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 1126613.7374625476, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.8838768470215571, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 8.22862518425688, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.8838768470215571, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 15703.33265431461, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.09865475399548525, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 1.0 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 10641.215120745976, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.44091950132448304, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.32235944082721707, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.8838768470215567, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.07824286222090683, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.6728048277558533, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 1.0 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 1, is at the lower edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 3 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 1.0 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_12", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 240", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 7, "score": 0.4608526901293288, "latitude": 44.52036628126599, "longitude": -121.18180313158146, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 240.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 558300.1504460525, "annual_employment": 4.077744239726628, "annual_labor_income": 182641.13839593183, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884357, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 40088.326833005536, "local_capture": 33282.891541138946, "displacement_share": 0.8302389790370713, "net_displacement_share": 0.6641911832296571, "net_new_capture": 13462.013600094377, "diverted_share": 0.9999999999999997, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.0611871673520831, "decay": 1.0 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 558300.1504460525, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.20310957792077064, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 4.077744239726628, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.20310957792077036, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 40088.326833005536, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.4157836606242582, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 1.0 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 13462.013600094377, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5888244667334835, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.6641911832296571, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.20310957792077042, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.0611871673520831, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.8656277921668659, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 1.0 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 1, is at the lower edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 4 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 1.0 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_04", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 80", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 8, "score": 0.45805406741657706, "latitude": 42.358315779656245, "longitude": -121.82347616491155, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 80.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 1049161.741387343, "annual_employment": 7.6629269113857985, "annual_labor_income": 343220.56810364133, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.662553579788436, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 19383.190031796657, "local_capture": 8939.178496426606, "displacement_share": 0.46118200779967383, "net_displacement_share": 0.3689456062397391, "net_new_capture": 12231.84723465537, "diverted_share": 0.9999999999999997, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.11710170299681982, "decay": 1.0 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 1049161.741387343, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.7910992237883623, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 7.6629269113857985, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.7910992237883618, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 19383.190031796657, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.14651160965512244, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 1.0 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 12231.84723465537, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5243222645876565, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.3689456062397391, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.7910992237883617, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.11710170299681982, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.23348664520068943, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 1.0 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 1, is at the lower edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 3 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 1.0 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_02", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 40", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 9, "score": 0.45152641488003914, "latitude": 41.827903837535516, "longitude": -122.00628482606395, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 40.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 1081148.5031138586, "annual_employment": 7.896553632198248, "annual_labor_income": 353684.65014027123, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884352, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 15825.39016313176, "local_capture": 6917.793727865571, "displacement_share": 0.43713258608826466, "net_displacement_share": 0.34970606887061173, "net_new_capture": 10291.155180839303, "diverted_share": 0.9999999999999968, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.08894834139123801, "decay": 1.0 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 1081148.5031138586, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.8294152889422042, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 7.896553632198248, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.8294152889422041, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 15825.39016313176, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.10024212219550885, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 1.0 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 10291.155180839303, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.4225645554883901, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.34970606887061173, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.8294152889422041, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.08894834139123801, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.5517741547202509, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 1.0 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 1, is at the lower edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 3 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 1.0 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_08", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 160", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 10, "score": 0.4513414562457918, "latitude": 43.4730584248342, "longitude": -121.6913936317356, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 160.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 388741.5684977329, "annual_employment": 2.8393126715395702, "annual_labor_income": 127172.1000890303, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884357, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 54940.783092109035, "local_capture": 52618.02556564171, "displacement_share": 0.9577225260409341, "net_displacement_share": 0.7661780208327473, "net_new_capture": 12846.362639595667, "diverted_share": 1.0000000000000002, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.06803210096052824, "decay": 2.5 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 388741.5684977329, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 2.8393126715395702, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 54940.783092109035, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.6089411073591513, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 2.5 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 12846.362639595667, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5565435949579096, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.7661780208327473, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.06803210096052824, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.7882424730855808, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 2.5 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 2.5, is at the upper edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 5 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 2.5 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_09", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 180", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 11, "score": 0.41435061867773065, "latitude": 43.71252751344958, "longitude": -121.47389688849505, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 180.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 495500.0770534614, "annual_employment": 3.6190615090727833, "annual_labor_income": 162096.8543103785, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884352, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 39667.696216726974, "local_capture": 34806.640503165894, "displacement_share": 0.8774555576153857, "net_displacement_share": 0.7019644460923087, "net_new_capture": 11822.383814194254, "diverted_share": 1.0, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.06638815113445587, "decay": 1.0 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 495500.0770534614, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.1278830912776449, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 3.6190615090727833, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.12788309127764477, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 39667.696216726974, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.41031332397141723, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 1.0 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 11822.383814194254, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5028525731215926, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.7019644460923087, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.12788309127764494, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.06638815113445587, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.806828129152029, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 1.0 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 1, is at the lower edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 5 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 1.0 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_05", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 100", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 12, "score": 0.37874276146616714, "latitude": 42.63237674105336, "longitude": -121.88129190547947, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 100.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 868260.6230881166, "annual_employment": 6.341651084188874, "annual_labor_income": 284040.9562821675, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884354, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 17335.053194710676, "local_capture": 10352.381138248948, "displacement_share": 0.5971935027812719, "net_displacement_share": 0.47775480222501754, "net_new_capture": 9053.148284111518, "diverted_share": 0.999999999999999, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.09095354188601058, "decay": 1.0 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 868260.6230881166, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5744027324580077, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 6.341651084188874, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5744027324580074, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 17335.053194710676, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.11987541728978725, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 1.0 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 9053.148284111518, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.35765124509872886, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.47775480222501754, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.5744027324580074, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.09095354188601058, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.5291043833263434, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 1.0 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 1, is at the lower edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 3 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 1.0 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_14", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 280", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 13, "score": 0.35130406920291685, "latitude": 44.989896117098006, "longitude": -120.85114230534546, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 280.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 478500.02775998734, "annual_employment": 3.4948955868065115, "annual_labor_income": 156535.49389651077, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884354, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 31089.61819402084, "local_capture": 27677.132711207898, "displacement_share": 0.8902371376349282, "net_displacement_share": 0.7121897101079426, "net_new_capture": 8947.912025054518, "diverted_share": 0.9999999999999993, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.052283574166452663, "decay": 2.5 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 478500.02775998734, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.1075191981797289, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 3.4948955868065115, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.10751919817972883, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 31089.61819402084, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.2987546955632007, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 2.5 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 8947.912025054518, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.35213331626774286, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.7121897101079426, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.1075191981797289, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.052283574166452663, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.9662872636904295, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 2.5 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 2.5, is at the upper edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 5 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 2.5 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_07", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 140", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 14, "score": 0.29162258765836624, "latitude": 43.19762712467075, "longitude": -121.7800948657503, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 140.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 437501.740035445, "annual_employment": 3.195449972339384, "annual_labor_income": 143123.400175397, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884357, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 29719.534137777064, "local_capture": 27373.531306520817, "displacement_share": 0.9210619244440242, "net_displacement_share": 0.7368495395552195, "net_new_capture": 7820.709092560408, "diverted_share": 0.9999999999999993, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.08406475847584663, "decay": 2.5 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 437501.740035445, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.05840847302785093, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 3.195449972339384, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.058408473027850724, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 29719.534137777064, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.28093663681927905, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 2.5 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 7820.709092560408, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.29302987021867344, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.7368495395552195, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.058408473027850835, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.08406475847584663, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.6069854458423748, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 2.5 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 2.5, is at the upper edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 5 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 2.5 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_15", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 300", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 15, "score": 0.2576803883074175, "latitude": 45.1867861084772, "longitude": -120.69591666573633, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 300.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 471187.625924671, "annual_employment": 3.4414868523852427, "annual_labor_income": 154143.33012126613, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884357, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 19327.215374228024, "local_capture": 17312.063397362566, "displacement_share": 0.8957350069398734, "net_displacement_share": 0.7165880055518987, "net_new_capture": 5477.5646563379705, "diverted_share": 1.0000000000000002, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.05392524752548903, "decay": 2.5 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 471187.625924671, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.09875987244527062, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 3.4414868523852427, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.09875987244527053, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 19327.215374228024, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.14578365451092265, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 2.5 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 5477.5646563379705, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.1701700844789183, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.7165880055518987, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.09875987244527058, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.05392524752548903, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.9477273441961728, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 2.5 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 2.5, is at the upper edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 5 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 2.5 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_06", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 120", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 16, "score": 0.22359066569130298, "latitude": 42.913001602119145, "longitude": -121.83182870427943, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 120.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 568209.131385797, "annual_employment": 4.15011801558236, "annual_labor_income": 185882.741604766, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884359, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 18855.267310422227, "local_capture": 15513.903848841723, "displacement_share": 0.8227888575340658, "net_displacement_share": 0.6582310860272527, "net_new_capture": 6444.144231348849, "diverted_share": 0.9999999999999992, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.13775420664778448, "decay": 2.5 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 568209.131385797, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.21497927459533883, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 4.15011801558236, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.2149792745953386, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 18855.267310422227, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.13964593012339385, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 2.5 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 6444.144231348849, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.22085144993401248, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.6582310860272527, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.21497927459533864, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.13775420664778448, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 2.5 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 2.5, is at the upper edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 5 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 2.5 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_16", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 320", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 17, "score": 0.20129542199621772, "latitude": 45.449481520980044, "longitude": -120.75270574682763, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 320.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 461195.1662406503, "annual_employment": 3.3685033597520033, "annual_labor_income": 150874.41785139317, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884357, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 12497.859950083226, "local_capture": 11288.665659338489, "displacement_share": 0.9032478923932344, "net_displacement_share": 0.7225983139145876, "net_new_capture": 3466.927422612435, "diverted_share": 0.999999999999999, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.05545106354939393, "decay": 2.5 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 461195.1662406503, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.08679017887098511, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 3.3685033597520033, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.08679017887098507, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 12497.859950083226, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.05696731103478132, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 2.5 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 3466.927422612435, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.06474488920835124, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.7225983139145876, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.08679017887098497, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.05545106354939393, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.9304772484869113, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 2.5 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 2.5, is at the upper edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 5 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 2.5 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_17", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 340", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 18, "score": 0.17344024178769274, "latitude": 45.67011735628739, "longitude": -120.8332638859122, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 340.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 457101.60178981815, "annual_employment": 3.338604552012126, "annual_labor_income": 149535.25777629783, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884354, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 9067.39072783994, "local_capture": 8218.008896856041, "displacement_share": 0.9063256612096784, "net_displacement_share": 0.7250605289677428, "net_new_capture": 2492.983610355107, "diverted_share": 0.9999999999999974, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.05655875486114087, "decay": 2.5 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 457101.60178981815, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.08188661021497096, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 3.338604552012126, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.0818866102149707, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 9067.39072783994, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.012353769374626091, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 2.5 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 2492.983610355107, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.013677389379187372, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.7250605289677428, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.08188661021497093, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.05655875486114087, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.9179542569567457, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 2.5 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 2.5, is at the upper edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 5 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 2.5 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] }, { "id": "us_97_20_mile_sweep_18", "name": "US-97 20-mile sweep mile 347", "status": "evaluated", "rank": 19, "score": 0.16613993704028246, "latitude": 45.7461335, "longitude": -120.8230806, "source": "Simplified US-97 route control-point polyline derived from cached OpenStreetMap Overpass data", "jurisdiction": "", "corridor_mile": 347.11652766750507, "evidence_tier": "derived", "metrics": { "annual_output": 457166.94999172364, "annual_employment": 3.3390818459080425, "annual_labor_income": 149556.6356497922, "annual_output_multiplier": 1.6625535797884354, "study_publishable": 1.0, "total_capture": 8117.472294078924, "local_capture": 7356.674613362767, "displacement_share": 0.9062765288067443, "net_displacement_share": 0.7250212230453954, "net_new_capture": 2232.1326033887112, "diverted_share": 0.9999999999999992, "self_cannibalization_share": 0.05691519611457287, "decay": 2.5 }, "score_components": [ { "key": "annual_output", "label": "Annual output", "value": 457166.94999172364, "unit": "dollars", "weight": 0.3, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "increases rank when the candidate re-solve produces more annual output", "direction": "above", "score": 0.08196488903491857, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_output", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "annual_employment", "label": "Annual employment", "value": 3.3390818459080425, "unit": "jobs", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "above", "score": 0.0819648890349185, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "annual_employment", "result_tier": "estimated", "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.25, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "study_publishable", "label": "Study release quality", "value": 1.0, "unit": "score", "weight": 0.2, "evidence_tier": "estimated", "source": "per-candidate study re-solve", "consequence": "reduces rank when the candidate re-solve is not publishable", "direction": "above", "score": 0.5, "diagnostics": { "origin": "study_re_solve", "metric": "study_publishable", "result_tier": "estimated" } }, { "key": "total_capture", "label": "Total market capture", "value": 8117.472294078924, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when the site captures more demand", "direction": "above", "score": 0.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "total_capture", "decay": 2.5 } }, { "key": "net_new_capture", "label": "Net new capture", "value": 2232.1326033887112, "unit": "weighted patrons", "weight": 0.35, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "increases rank when captured demand is less displaced", "direction": "above", "score": 0.0, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_new_capture", "recapture_share": 0.2 } }, { "key": "net_displacement_share", "label": "Net displacement share", "value": 0.7250212230453954, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.0, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "reported for context; not used in rank because it moves with Annual output across the candidate set", "direction": "below", "score": 0.08196488903491854, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "net_displacement_share", "recapture_share": 0.2, "rank_weight_removed": true, "original_weight": 0.2, "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "reason": "This component moved the same way as another scored component across the candidate set, so it was not counted again." } }, { "key": "self_cannibalization_share", "label": "Self-cannibalization share", "value": 0.05691519611457287, "unit": "share", "weight": 0.1, "evidence_tier": "derived", "source": "shared market solver", "consequence": "penalizes locations that relocate existing operator revenue", "direction": "below", "score": 0.9139245144189163, "diagnostics": { "origin": "market_solve", "metric": "self_cannibalization_share", "decay": 2.5 } } ], "conditions": [ "This interval sweep re-solves the study by candidate using distance-proxy market costs and a stated unemployment rate; measured road routing, live BLS LAUS/OEWS refresh, repeated viability, payroll, robustness, and forecast-register sections are parked for the rerun-cache lift.", "Candidate was re-solved through the study engine; rank stability propagation is still a separate gate." ], "blockers": [], "warnings": [ "the best decay found, 2.5, is at the upper edge of the candidate range 1-2.5. The optimum may lie outside it and the search was not allowed to look, so this is a censored result rather than a fitted one. Widen the candidates or state the range as a constraint the study accepted." ], "trace": [ { "source": "candidate overlay", "claim": "candidate-specific study config prepared", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve" }, { "source": "study engine", "claim": "candidate-specific study re-solve completed", "solve_stage": "study_re_solve", "validation_passed": false, "solve_boundary": "solve_study", "recorded_manifold_quantities": 8, "indexed_sources": 3, "diagnostics": 5 }, { "source": "shared market solution", "claim": "candidate market components use the shared cost and decay solve", "decay": 2.5 } ], "diagnostics": [], "missing_evidence": [] } ], "sensitivity": { "rank_stability": "not_established", "rank_stability_measurement": {}, "win_probability": {}, "pairwise_regret": { "us_97_20_mile_sweep_10": 0.0, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_11": 0.0056547905489960915, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_13": 0.10018648444849199, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_00": 0.13788717968713982, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_03": 0.2058656658257909, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_01": 0.20782284372717336, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_12": 0.22488901993941485, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_04": 0.22768764265216657, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_02": 0.2342152951887045, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_08": 0.23440025382295182, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_09": 0.271391091391013, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_05": 0.3069989486025765, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_14": 0.3344376408658268, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_07": 0.3941191224103774, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_15": 0.4280613217613261, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_06": 0.46215104437744065, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_16": 0.4844462880725259, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_17": 0.5123014682810509, "us_97_20_mile_sweep_18": 0.5196017730284612 }, "ranking_signal_diagnostics": [ { "severity": "warn", "category": "duplicate_rank_signal", "component": "annual_employment", "component_label": "Annual employment", "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "original_weight": 0.25, "consequence": "Annual employment is disclosed but carries no ranking weight because it matched another scored component across the candidate set." }, { "severity": "warn", "category": "duplicate_rank_signal", "component": "net_displacement_share", "component_label": "Net displacement share", "duplicate_of": "annual_output", "duplicate_of_label": "Annual output", "original_weight": 0.2, "consequence": "Net displacement share is disclosed but carries no ranking weight because it matched another scored component across the candidate set." } ], "flip_conditions": [ "A small movement in weighted components could move US-97 20-mile sweep mile 220 ahead of US-97 20-mile sweep mile 200; run correlated propagation before making this a final siting recommendation." ], "rank_stability_scope": "No resampling stands behind these conditions. They are read off the size of the margin and the components that make it, so nothing here has tested how far the evidence under this order can move, and no variable in this pack has been varied at all." }, "not_established": [ "Generated interval candidates are route-screening points and do not replace parcel selection, access engineering, or entitlement review.", "A provisional leader is not a site recommendation unless rank stability is measured and established.", "Correlated candidate propagation has not been run; ranking is a deterministic comparison of the supplied or solved components.", "The ranking of these candidates is not established. It was not resampled, and the order it reports is one deterministic run. Which Components Could Flip This Order names the components it turns on and how far each would have to move.", "No win probability is established. Nothing in this run estimates how often each candidate would come first if the inputs were resampled." ], "diagnostics": [ { "severity": "warn", "message": "Annual employment matched Annual output across the candidate set", "candidate_id": "", "consequence": "the repeated signal is disclosed but removed from the ranking weight", "category": "duplicate_rank_signal" }, { "severity": "warn", "message": "Net displacement share matched Annual output across the candidate set", "candidate_id": "", "consequence": "the repeated signal is disclosed but removed from the ranking weight", "category": "duplicate_rank_signal" } ], "validation": { "subject": "location decision", "passed": true, "checks": [ { "name": "location_diagnostic_warning", "severity": "warn", "message": "Annual employment matched Annual output across the candidate set", "detail": { "candidate": "", "consequence": "the repeated signal is disclosed but removed from the ranking weight" } }, { "name": "location_diagnostic_warning", "severity": "warn", "message": "Net displacement share matched Annual output across the candidate set", "detail": { "candidate": "", "consequence": "the repeated signal is disclosed but removed from the ranking weight" } } ] }, "release_safety_scope": "release-safe on the candidate evidence; the ranking is not established", "recommendation_decision_safety_scope": "not decision-safe as a site recommendation; rank stability is not established", "release_label_words": "Comparison-safe; no site recommendation", "release_label_use": "Use this comparison to narrow the field, not to make the final selection. That is a job it can do, and it is the job it was run for: the candidate evidence cleared the release gate, so this pack may be circulated, a board may carry the top of this order forward as the live shortlist, and diligence money may be committed against it. Which Components Could Flip This Order names where that money goes first and how far each component would have to move. What this pack may not do is name the site that gets built. The order among the candidates at the top has not been tested against the evidence bounds at all, so nothing here says whether it would come out the same way twice.", "comparison_basis": "Every one of the 19 candidate records in this pack was fully evaluated, so the comparison rests on all of them.", "partial_candidates": [], "recommendation_blockers": [ "Rank stability is not established. This comparison was not resampled, and the order it reports is one deterministic run.", "2 conditions on this comparison apply to every candidate rather than to US-97 20-mile sweep mile 200, and are stated under Run Limits. The comparison assumes them all." ], "reversal_conditions": [] }